First, the “conflict over the 25km on the sea” as recently described by Kouchner, has been around since the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Two bordering former republics suddenly realised that the border among them is not fixed in stone and so remains today.  I will completely ignore the arguments of both sides, these are enough to write something longer than Marx ever did. Bottom line: well used 17 years.

Secondly, in 17 years Slovenia and Croatia never managed to really isolate the problem of the border from other. It remains linked to the unsolved issue of the old Ljubljanska Banka (see short news from BIRN) and the co-ownership of the nuclear power plant in Krško. The first prohibits the Slovenian bank to operate in Croatia and gives rise to some anti-Slovenian slogans around Croatia, the second ends sometime in courts, while the nuclear waste continues to be deposited in Slovenia only. Bottom line: again, well used 17 years.

Thirdly, the issue is now being blow out of proportions. Kouchner’s comment was of course out of place and explains why Sarkozy took him on board – they’re personally compatible. Both ideologically flexible and loose cannons – first shoot and then think. But in its essence, it cannot be so complex to drag on for 17 years and not to see any progress. Mind you, both countries claim they’re modern western democracies…There are international legal experts, courts…you name it! Bottom line: 17 years passed and the only result is that the situation is getting worse.

Now, I’m not objective on the issue. I think Slovenia would have a good case if the issue is brought to arbitration or a court. Our diplomacy should have been more forceful and more decisive on the matter and should have stopped the spiraling of the dispute by advocating international arbitration. We are now entering a lose-lose situation: Slovenia losing credibility and Croatia losing time on its progress towards the EU. On the top, bilateral relations will be severely damaged for a long time.

What I’m quite happy about is that 1 million Slovenian (out of 2) go to the Croatian coast every year in the summer and have tremendous time. Shows how little people care about politics – good in this case. Hope they will do so for the next 17 years.

P.S.: I can also not refrain to add a comment on our former Foreign Minister’s performance. Dimitrij Rupel has been heading slovenian diplomacy for 10 years all together. Almost nothing to reproach on the multilateral level (EU, NATO, UN…), but bilaterally he has been a big disappointment. Slovenians have good relations and substantial relations on the state level only with Hungary. All others (Austria, Italy and Croatia) are not really what you would call “friends”.

Dr Dimitrij Rupel became almost part of the furniture at the Slovenian Foreign Office in the last 2 decades. He has basically been Foreign Minister since I started following politics, which goes a while ago. On and off he has been Foreign Minister for some 10 years. An impressive resume, on paper. However, some of us will also remember some of his less prominent intellectual escapades…He very often proved to be unsuitable for the job because of his temper. Some people think twice before speaking, Rupel would speak twice before thinking. However, all this should be placed aside.

The new Prime Minister, Borut Pahor, had therefore all the best preconditions to push “reset” on the Foreign Ministry and put the house in order. And it all started well – he appointed Samuel Zbogar as Foreign Minister. As a long-serving diplomat, Zbogar was already State Secretary under Rupel and lately Ambassador to the US. He’s young, mild-spoken and intelligent. People seem to like him and the appointment was well received by the electorate. (see vest.si for a nice conversation with the guy, in Slovenian)

It got even better. The President of Slovenia, Danilo Türk, rejected Rupel’s self-application for the post of Ambassador to Austria, stating that he doesn’t trust him. That had to be a severe blow to Rupel’s ego. And there it goes all wrong, Rupel goes to the court and sues Slovenia for not appointing him…

And Pahor takes him into his Cabinet, as special envoy for foreign policy?! Where did Pahor got this idea, I would have problems even guessing. The public went mad, the news was all over the place and his coalition partners all had lemon faces. Rupel now sits again close to the government, in the front line we could say. After changing parties 4-5 times (lost the count…), he now seems to be close to the Social Democrats…

But even strategically, why did Pahor do it? Let’s pause for a moment and think. He might have thought “better to have him inside the tent pissing out, then outside pissing in” - but that doesn’t really apply, since Rupel does not have any legitimacy or credibility left and would be harmless in few months’ time. He also does not excel in foreign policy analysis plus he does not bring any votes. So?

Let’s leave it some time and see. Pahor should explain it one day.